Manifold account: @Cazurite
+M266.65
Net worth M1362.65 = cash M800.37 + invested M562.28
2026 Brazil Presidential Election Winner: Lula Da Silva won
+M231 profit (+426%) on M54 spent, M285 paid out
Biggest Bot Wins
| Question | Market | Bot | Trade result | What happened |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Brazil Presidential Election Winner: Lula Da Silva | Paid off | The bot bought Lula YES at the 19% market price, against its own 34% estimate. Lula won. | ||
| F1: Who will win the 2026 MSC Cruises United States Grand Prix? | Paid off | The bot bought NO on Max Verstappen at a 54% NO price, against its own 41% estimate. Kimi Antonelli won, so the NO position paid M24 on M13 spent. | ||
| Strait of Hormuz: 7-day average ships passing through on 25 October 2026 | Paid off | The bot bought NO on x ≥ 5 and x ≥ 10 (15 bets, M294 spent). Every answer resolved NO, so the position paid M394 (+34%). |
Scoreboard.
Each forecast is compared with the community prediction once the question resolves. Yellow means still pending.
All of these questions were chosen on 24 October 2026 as interesting, high-disagreement questions to measure bot performance.
Will Donald Trump attend UFC 334?
Bot 30.0% · Community 30.4%
Pending
Trump's chance of attending UFC 334 at Madison Square Garden on November 14, 2026 resolves Yes only if he is on the grounds before midnight ET, with late arrivals resolving No. Market data suggests about 30%–31% in late October. One analysis weighing his perfect November MSG record estimates roughly 45% (range 30%–55%).
Since his January 20, 2025 inauguration, Trump has attended 3 of 20 numbered UFC events (15%). He attended all three prior November MSG cards: UFC 244 (2019), UFC 295 (2023), and UFC 309 (November 16, 2024).
The general 15% base rate conflicts with the venue-specific November MSG record. One view holds that market pricing underweights the MSG effect.
His confirmed participation in the ASEAN Summit in Manila starting November 16 requires extensive trans-Pacific travel, which makes late-night domestic travel on November 14 improbable.
Will the winner of Alaska's 2026 gubernatorial election receive fewer votes in the first round than another candidate?
Bot 16.0% · Community 21.0%
Pending
The forecast hinges on a consolidated Democratic vote against a fractured Republican field under Alaska's ranked-choice voting system. Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins holds an 18 to 20 point lead in first-round polling (40% to 50%) over three Republicans, making him very likely to finish first in round one. Current simulations show him keeping a 52% to 55% lead in final rounds, because of significant Republican ballot exhaustion and intra-party friction.
First-round leaders rarely lose. This happened in only 2.68% of Alaska RCV elections overall and 13.64% of multi-round contests.
With one Democrat and three Republicans, conservative transfers could in theory overcome a first-round gap.
What percentage of the vote will the Massachusetts initiative to repeal recreational marijuana legalization receive?
Bot 28.2% · Community 29.0% (medians)
Pending
Our researchers found that the projected Yes share for Massachusetts Question 8 is 28.4%, with an 80% range of 24% to 33%, compared with a 27.9% polling average. Recent pre-election surveys showed Yes between 21.4% and 31.0%, and No led in every poll. Results are calculated as Yes ÷ (Yes + No), so blanks, overvotes and undervotes are excluded.
A Yes vote would repeal commercial recreational cannabis sales, while No keeps the current framework. If the measure is removed before certification, it resolves N/A.
Undecided voters typically break about 2:1 toward No, which limits Yes gains. October polls ranged from 21.4% Yes (Suffolk) to 31.0% Yes (UMass Amherst/YouGov).
The inverted ballot, where voting Yes eliminates legalization, may cause voter confusion.
Will California avoid the "highest vote rule" with its 2026 billionaire's tax referendum?
Bot 86.2% · Community 85.0%
Pending
The question resolves No only if Proposition 40 passes and Proposition 41 or 42 passes with more Yes votes than Proposition 40. Otherwise it resolves Yes, including when Proposition 40 fails or competing measures tie or trail it. Resolution relies on the certified Statement of Vote, due on or before December 11, 2026.
Propositions 40, 41 and 42 were certified for the November 3, 2026 ballot on June 25, 2026. Proposition 40 would impose a wealth tax of up to 5% on assets above $1 billion.
Late-October polling put Proposition 40 Yes support between 38% and 52%, and one survey showed No ahead.
The forecast reflects a strong likelihood that California avoids the highest vote rule, because the proposed tax is usually structured to be complementary or legally distinct from other revenue measures. The highest vote rule is tied to Article II, Section 10(b) of the California Constitution, and it applies only when an irreconcilable conflict would leave only the highest-vote measure in effect.
Will exhausted ballots exceed the winning margin in the 2026 US Senate election in Alaska?
Bot 30.9% · Community 33.0%
Pending
The question resolves Yes only if cumulative final-round inactive ballots strictly exceed the final vote gap between the top two candidates, per the certified Alaska Division of Elections report. If any candidate exceeds 50% in round one, it resolves No regardless of ballot counts. Final inactive ballots are constrained to roughly 4,000 to 10,000, and market data suggests about a 46.5% chance the margin is 3 points or less.
Past certified contests all resolved No: 2022 Senate (9,107 inactive vs. 18,796 margin), 2022 House General (14,796 vs. 24,792), and 2024 House General (7,595 vs. 7,876).
Peltola's primary baseline of 49.54% makes an outright first-round majority a substantial risk, which would trigger the automatic No rule.
How many Swiss regions will be classified as "Extremely Dry" according to the Swiss drought platform on November 8, 2026?
Bot 3.9 regions · Community 8 regions (medians)
Pending
The forecast hinges on an exact count of regions rated Extremely dry on the national Combined Drought Index map valid for November 8, 2026, out of 38 regions. The source records 20 of 38 regions in that category on August 1, 2026. No verified national count for late October was available, so the outcome remains uncertain.
The index classifies regions using the second-highest level among 30-, 90- and 730-day precipitation, root-zone soil moisture and streamflow. Its 2nd-percentile threshold is seasonally adjusted against 1991–2020 climatology. Cantonal briefings noted lingering severe deficits in central and northeastern cantons and Valais.
Seasonal transition risks are weighed against the unverified late-October baseline. Persistence from multi-month deficits is weighed against dry conditions projected into early November.
The forecast points to a low single-digit count of Extremely dry regions, with a median of 2.6 regions. The count is expected to move toward climatological minimums by November as autumn evapotranspiration falls and seasonal wetting continues. Lingering 90-day precipitation deficits, depressed lake and river levels and high-pressure blocking through early November are expected to prevent a full recovery in slowly reacting subsurface systems. The upper tail reflects the risk of sustained deficits across up to 13.6 to 18.2 regions.
Will "None of These Candidates" receive more votes than the winning margin in the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election?
Bot 35.7% · Community 28.3%
Pending
Our researchers found that NOTC must exceed the margin between the top two named candidates in Nevada's 2026 gubernatorial race for a Yes resolution, and exact ties resolve No. No qualifying instance appears in verified modern Nevada gubernatorial cycles, and NOTC trailed the margin in each. Pre-election polling shows a tight race of about 1–2 points, but polling error typically widens actual election margins.
Certification is expected on or about November 24, 2026, from the Nevada Secretary of State and Nevada Supreme Court, subject to recount or contest delays. Independent candidate Danielle Ford may draw protest votes that could otherwise go to NOTC.
The estimate rests on Nevada's history of exceptionally competitive gubernatorial races, where thin victory margins could realistically fall below the typical baseline share of protest votes cast on the None of These Candidates option. Because a tight outcome remains likely, the chances of this condition being met are judged moderately high.
Major-party polarization and high-stakes campaigning often minimise pure protest voting in top-of-the-ticket elections, which works against the forecast.
Will Rodrigo Duterte’s trial at the ICC open before December 1, 2026?
Bot 90.5% · Community 83.0%
Pending
The ICC scheduled the formal opening of the Duterte trial for 30 November 2026, one day before the 1 December 2026 cutoff. The date was set on 27 May 2026 and repeated in the 8 October 2026 announcement of a fitness decision. As of 19 October 2026, the opening had not yet occurred, so the outcome still depends on the schedule holding.
Duterte faces three counts of crimes against humanity. Charges were confirmed on 23 April 2026.
Duterte's health is a monitored risk, and a substantiated reassessment request could lead to adjournment. Defence objections to Prosecution Rule 68 applications remain unresolved, though no source says they have delayed the opening.